The 10-year UST yield has dropped again, or is now at the level of 1.59%. Meanwhile, positive sentiment came from the release of China’s 1Q21 economic growth data and the US weekly jobless claims data.
The movement of JCI this week will be influenced by Bank Indonesia Board of Governors’ Meeting for the April period. By consensus, BI-7DRRR is projected to stay at 3.5%, despite the slow downward trend of bank lending rate. In the global market, releases of US economic data such as the weekly jobless claim and Manufacturing PMI will give a clearer picture of the economic recovery. Investors will pay close attention on this to be aware of the potential for further capital outflows.
Over the past week, the JCI managed to rebound by 0.26%, which was marked by the return of buying from foreign investors. Market participants will be watching the results of the announcement of the BI RDG results this week as well as the release of US economic data which can provide a clearer indication of the economic recovery in the country. Entering the new week, JCI is expected to continue its consolidation with a range of movement at 6,000 – 6,115.
From the domestic market, the release of the March trade balance, which showed an increase in export-import activity, succeeded in helping the JCI to continue rally. Foreign investors also posted another net buy for the second day in a row. Towards the end of the week, JCI will still be overshadowed by profit taking with a range of movements at 5,950 – 6,113.
The result of the additional auction (green shoe option) for SUN yesterday, the government won FR0083 worth IDR 2.1 trillion (BTC 1.7x) or the highest in value among other series in the range of IDR 157 billion to IDR 1.9 trillion.
From the domestic market, the return of buying from foreign investors was able to bring the JCI to above 6,000. The market will be watching the release of trade balance data for March 2021 which is predicted to experience a decrease in surplus, in line with the start of increasing import activity. Today, JCI is expected to consolidate with a tendency to weaken in the range of 5,957-6,113.
The results of the auction of Government Securities (SUN) yesterday recorded total bids of up to IDR 42.9 trillion.
Even though it is still under pressure, buying has begun to appear in the JCI correction yesterday. Market players will still keep an eye on various factors that have the potential to affect the stock market, such as: US economic developments, the rupiah exchange rate, and BPJS Ketenagakerjaan’s plan to rebalance. Technically, JCI still has the opportunity to rebound with a range of movements of 5,883 – 6,060.
JCI was again under pressure at the beginning of the week with a decline of 2%. The unfavorable data on retail sales for February 2021 and the weakening Rupiah exchange rate to a level of IDR 14,600/USD are some of the negative sentiments for the stock market. Entering the first day of Ramadan, JCI has the opportunity for a technical rebound with projected movements in the range of 5,900 – 6,088.
