The increase in the trade balance surplus succeeded in pushing the JCI to increase by 0.64% to 5,797. The 8 sectoral indices experienced an increase, accompanied by the rally of most blue chip stocks. Towards the end of the week, the benchmark index is expected to move in the range of 5,737 – 5,896.
In line with the movement of the global market, JCI was again under pressure amid the lack of new positive sentiment. Market players will be watching the release of trade balance data for April 2021, which is predicted to remain in the surplus area. For today, JCI has the opportunity to continue its decline with a range of movement at 5,737 – 5,839.
All benchmark series Government Bonds (SUN) recorded yield increases in the range of 1.1 bps to 2.6 bps, with the yield of FR0087 rising to the level of 6.46% based on data from NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia.
Japan’s 1Q21 economy contracted again beyond market participants’ projections, increasing the likelihood of a double recession as efforts to contain the spread of the disease and speed up vaccine rollouts are made.
JCI managed to close flat even though it fell to below 5,800. The initiation of the Gotong Royong vaccination program slightly eased fears of an increase in the number of Covid-19 cases after the Eid holiday. Technically, JCI has the opportunity to move back to the positive area in a range of 5,817 – 5,909.
Market participants are again watching fears of rising inflation in the United States (US) and triggering speculation that the Fed will reduce the rate of bond purchases in the market.
From within the country, yesterday’s sharp correction in the JCI was contrary to the majority of regional exchanges that managed to turn green. This was accompanied by the weakening of the USD/IDR exchange rate, as well as ending the rally that had occurred during the past month. For today, the JCI has the opportunity to technically rebound in the range 5,817 – 5,960.
Last week, the government issued State Sharia Securities (SBSN) or State Sukuk PBS026 (3,4-year) and PBS003 (5,7-year), through a private placement method.
Starting post-Eid trading, investors will pay close attention to the sentiments and movements of the global market during the trading holiday period. Some of the important economic data which will be reported are: inflation rate in China and US; and US retail sales. Domestically, market participants are also looking forward to the release of Trade Balance data for April, and the development of export and import activity. Throughout Q1/21, Indonesia experienced a surplus in Trade Balance at USD5.52 billion, with export and import growth recorded at 17.11% and 10.76% yoy.
