Trade Balance data that reflects the growth of Exports & Imports will be in the spotlight of several countries this week, such as the US, China, and the UK. Not to forget the favorite labor data every week, the US Initial jobless Claims which will always be awaited by market participants every Thursday.
US10YT reaffirmed its downtrend after slipping off the climbing path or PARALLEL CHANNEL pattern – uptrend. MA10 & MA20 are also detected to be ready to dead cross soon, and will be the ceiling that hinders the increase in US Treasury yields going forward.
The Dow closed higher Friday (3/11/23), wrapping up the week with its biggest weekly gain this year as a weaker-than-expected jobs report stoked hopes that Federal Reserve rate hikes are now in the rearview mirror, pushing Treasury yields sharply lower.
US10YT is out of its climbing path since early August, opening up the potential for further downside in yield towards the bottom target of around 4.309% (Not forgetting the MA50 Support at 4.567% yield as a possible technical rebound spot).
Wall Street’s three main stock indexes rallied nearly 2% on Thursday (2/11/23) on hopes that the Federal Reserve has reached the end of its interest rate hiking trend, as well as in response to a batch of stronger-than-expected Q3 earning reports.
US10YT suddenly fell to lower channel support at 4.71% yield after THE FED kept interest rates unchanged, but in fact it has not disturbed the medium-term uptrend. ADVISE: HOLD; Wait & See. The nearest resistance is the MA20 & MA10 in the yield range: 4.79% – 4.85%.
Wall Street’s major indexes closed higher in early November, with the Nasdaq’s 1.6% advance leading gains, after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% (as per market expectations) in two consecutive meetings, and comments from its top official fueled investor optimism rate hikes were done even though the central bank left the door open for more, especially after several recent indicators showed that economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter.
Overall US10YT yield bullish remains intact above MA10 / 4.897% Support. US10YT still has a chance to get back above the psychological level of 5.00% yield despite the looming RSI negative divergence. ADVISE: HOLD; Don’t forget to set your Trailing Stop.
All three major Wall Street indexes closed higher on the final day of trade for October, but unfortunately stocks couldn’t avoid racking up a third-straight loss. The S&P 500 fell 2.2% in October, while the Dow’s 1.4% drop was the longest monthly decline since the pandemic shook the markets in early 2020.
